Poll: Hedge Funds Modeling Flat to Minorly Higher Oil Prices in 2016

SumZero recently asked members of its buyside community for their sentiments on the short-term direction of oil prices in the coming year. The results suggest that while the vast majority of professional investors on SumZero believe that the major energy commodity has bottomed out and/or will experience a short-term recovery in the coming months, there is little confidence in a major recovery in 2016.

SumZero is the world's largest community of investment professionals working at hedge funds, mutual funds, and private equity funds. With over 3,500 funds active on the platform, SumZero is the fast-growing voice of the fund industry.

Given the purity of the population (all members work at funds), we were interested to hear how the industry feels about this universally relevant commodity. We conducted this poll between 10/22/15 and 10/29/15. The results are in.

Here's what the buyside thinks about short-term oil prices:

I expect Oil prices to decline more than 50%: 1.08%
I expect Oil prices to decline 10-50%: 9.73%
I expect Oil prices to hold steady +/- 10%: 43.78%
I expect Oil prices to increase 10-50%: 42.70%
I expect Oil prices to increase more than 50%: 2.70%

We will run this same question in future months to see how the mood evolves. Stay tuned for more poll results to come on topical questions of broad relevance, including special situations, interest rates, China, and more.

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